The 90th Academy Awards

Okay, it’s Oscar time again.  Let it be known that I have seen NONE of the films that are nominated this year.  BUT, I have seen American Film Buff’s reviews of each of the Best Picture nominations (look the works and tremble! American Film Buff's 2018 Academy Noms) and I have stayed once at a Holiday Inn Express.  So how does one pick Academy Award winning films by watching reviews only?  Well, it’s more than that. To do this effectively, one must think like an Academy voting member thinks.  One must get into character, stick one’s finger in the air to test which way the zeitgeist is blowing, use the Force, and choose wisely.  That said, here are my picks for who’s going to be walking away with an Oscar tonight…

Best Picture – “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”.  “Why?” lobbyists.  “The Shape of Water”, “Get Out”, and “Lady Bird” are probably better films but they don’t have a chance due to one being science fiction, one being horror, and one with far fewer lobbyists.  Of course, there is always the possibility that “Dunkirk” will slap the Oscar out of Three Billboards’ hands.  I’d be okay with that. 

Best Actor – Gary Oldman.  “Why?” He’s due.

Best Actress – Francis McDormand.  “Why her?”  Well, from what I understand it’s a good performance in a film that doesn’t really know what it wants to be.  She is talented, but I believe her name has been whispered by several lobbying firms in a full court press.  She’d be a fine choice among an excellent group of actors this year.  I understand that Margo Robbie and Saoirse Ronan delivered great performances too.  McDormand, FTW.

Best Supporting Actor – Sam Rockwell.  Not to take anything away from his performance, but Three Billboards has a powerful lobby.  I’d like to see Christopher Plumber take it for the pick-up shots alone, but smart money’s on Mr. Rockwell.

Best Supporting Actress – Octavia Spencer.  This is Ms. Spencer’s third nomination. She won for “The Help” and, although it’s a close field this year, she’s my pick for “The Shape of Water”.  “Why?” The Academy likes will run with a familiar winner. They’ve seen her work – they’ve recognized her, and they’re about to do so again.

Best Writing Adapted Screenplay – “The Disaster Artist”.  I have neither read the book nor seen the film – THAT said, this is going to win.  Special shout out to “LOGAN”, which is, for my money, in the top 10 ‘Superhero’ films ever made.

Best Director – Christopher Nolan.  “Why?” Spectacle.  The Academy enjoys a sweeping spectacle.  Nolan knows how to tell a story and “Dunkirk” was made for the big screen (especially IMAX).  This is a tight field this year.  As much as I’d love to hear the words, “And the winner goes to Guillermo del Toro!” I will not.  From what I understand, Jordan Peele and Greta Gerwig are no slouches either.  That said, tonight it’s all Nolan.

Best Original Music Score – Hans Zimmer for “Dunkirk”.  This will be a close one between Zimmer and John Williams for “Star Wars – The Last Jedi”.  Justifiably so.  Zimmer, by a nose.

Best Original Screenplay – “Get Out” by Jordan Peele.  “Why?” because this is how the Academy works – let the first-time nominee get the writing credit and two films from now, once he/she has paid their dues, THEN give them the Oscar for Best Picture or Best Director.  Mr. Peele will walk away the winner; although, I would not be opposed to hear Guillermo del Toro’s name either.

Best Cinemaphotography – Hoyt van Hoytema for “Dunkirk”.  I would LOVE to see Roger Deakins get the nod for “Blade Runner 2049”, (oddly one of the only films that I have seen this past year), but, “Dunkirk”, will ring in the Academy viewer’s/voter’s memory.

Best Visual Effects – “Blade Runner 2049”.  This is, again, a tight field this year.  Although there are some truly wonderful contenders this year, I have to give the edge to “Blade Runner 2049”. Like it’s predecessor it envisioned the future and made it real.  Dare I say, it is a beautiful offering.  “War for the Planet of the Apes” is probably a close second.

SO, there are my picks.  How about YOURS, fellow film fan?  Who’s walking away with the Oscar tonight?