Showing posts with label confirmation bias. Show all posts
Showing posts with label confirmation bias. Show all posts

Saturday, October 24, 2020

A Simple Hope

I changed my Facebook cover photo to this… 

Spider-Man reminding us all to check our pride.  “…We need to give each other the benefit of the doubt, or there won’t be anything left of us but our pride.”

“When you walk around only expecting the worst, that’s all you’ll ever see.” – George Scully

I have grown weary seeing only the worst.  That’s why I am not on social media as much as I was at one time, these days.  I have trained myself to see the worst.  In my defense there have been some very good examples of the worst given by my peers and friends.  And I have cut some people off for the simple reason that I don’t need the additional head noise.  Some had to go because I do not do conspiracy theories on my own time – nor white nationalist agendas.  That bullshit had to go.  In the wake of their exit I have become sensitive to seeing ‘the worst’.  I can’t live there, though.  I need to believe (apart from glassy eyed believers and Nazi sympathizers) that we can give each other the benefit of the doubt.  I need to believe this because Spidey is right, if we can’t, “there won’t be anything left but our pride.”

A simple hope.  The return of normalcy, of dignity, of unity.  No cults or bigots.  A place where confirmation biases are recognized – both yours and mine – where we can set them aside, rationally discuss issues, compromise, and move forward towards a common good – towards a future.  A future for all.  A future worth having.

A simple hope, I know.  But a worthy one.

I look forward to a time when this election is behind us.  I hope it is a future without the current occupant of the White House for reasons found on the previous 1,367 pages of this tome*.  The future I see is after this dark time in history.  It will come – eventually.  When it does, may we have the eyes to see our mistakes, the ears to listen, the hands to help, and the heart to change.  We will need them all for healing to happen but happen it must.

It will.

We owe it to the future – to pass on to them a world worth having.

Perhaps, one day, we will look back in remembrance of the lessons learned from this time – a time then far behind us and wonder at the changes that have come to pass and how far we have come.    

I hope so.  It is a simple hope – for a better future.

Simple but worthy.   

Selah.

 

*Gentle Reader, I have been keeping a journal since the beginning of the quarantine.  This humble blog post is part of a much bigger project.  The project is growing.  I will keep doing so until the new normal is established as, well, the new normal or, probably, for another 1,300 pages.  It is not fit for human consumption at this time, but it is doing exactly what it needs to do – mark this time in history, document day to day life, and keep me sane.

 


Friday, August 28, 2020

There. I Fixed It.

A blog in two parts.

There are two parts to this.  Part one consists of words verses words and it is a bit incendiary.  Part two is about the power of words and the stories that we choose to believe.  It is a bit less provocative, but then again it’s hard to get the toothpaste back into the tube once one squeezes it onto your brush.


Part I…

So, I came across a political meme that has been making the rounds on social media, yesterday.  That’s really not a hard thing to do these days.  Pick a side and run with it to your hearts content.  There’s something for everyone.  Pick something that fits your world view, your confirmation biases and there you are.  Just try not to get too carried away.  This meme gets a bit carried away with itself.

I decided that I was not going to cut & paste it here as it is presented.  No, that wouldn't be proper, it needs some fixing.  Perhaps it’s part of my own confirmation bias, but I believe the truth should still mean something.  So, instead of just cutting & pasting, I’m simply going to describe it for you, Gentle Reader.  There is a picture of Trump glaring at the camera and pointing a finger.  The words surrounding his precious little head read…

“In reality they’re not after me they’re after you.

I’m just in the way.”

At the very top, above the postcard picture of that man of the people are those words.  Words written by a peeved Proud Boy(s), a Trump cultist(s), a campaign writer(s), or some combination, thereof.  Words specifically designed to strum all the strings of manipulation at once.  Words designed to divide – it is an election, after all, but, regretfully, the last four years have gifted us with nothing but division.  The words used here are marching orders.  Words that say, in no uncertain terms, that Trump is the conduit to a golden future for the United States and if you think differently, you’re simply wrong, you Godless, leftist, Democrat, and you deserve to be crushed. 

I have taken the liberty to address the points raised by this patriotic young lad(s) or lass(es), wherever your pronouns may be.  I wrote in the brackets – emboldened.  Here we go!   

To answer all of those of you who would say “I can't believe you would vote for Trump." Well folks listen up! I'm not just voting for him. I'm voting for the second Amendment (because they’re coming for your guns!  SPOILERS, no – that old chestnut is not true, no one is coming for your guns unless there is a good reason for it). I'm voting for the next supreme court justice (due to me being jaded and chocked full of biases also I don’t like balance), I'm voting for the electoral college (how do I feel about gerrymandering? Hold on, I have to look that up), and the Republic (dystopia) we live in. I'm voting for the Police (the good ones, the ones who kill people that are not the same color as I am, or the stormtroopers who make people disappear?  There are so many to choose from these days!), and law and order (I do not like protesters and my second amendment rights are more important than their first amendment ones). I'm voting for the military (you mean the estimated U.S. military spending is $934 billion*. It covers the period October 1, 2020, through September 30, 2021?), and the veterans (who are having problems getting their medications through the mail since Mango Mussolini tried to kill the United States Post Office) who fought for and died for this Country. I'm voting for the Flag that is always missing from the Democratic background (another contrived lie; also, I’m beginning to think you don’t like Democrats). I'm voting for the right to speak my opinion and not be censored (Come now, you have never had a problem voicing your opinion – whether it’s not wanting to wear a mask during a global pandemic or just the casual refusal of science, voicing your opinion is not one of your problems.  But, hey, if you could lay off the conspiracy theories, though? it would be appreciated). I’m voting for secure borders (and against Mexicans because they don’t look like me – any other people who also do not look like me). I’m voting for the right to praise my God without fear (Come now, let’s not be coy, you praise your God without fear already. As an American your idea of religious persecution pales in comparison to the real thing.  But, God - which one are you referring to?  Hard to say – there are so many.  Playing the odds, 74% of the U.S. claim Christianity. Out of curiosity, if you claim to be a follower of Christ, which title do you prefer, Capitalist or Christian? Asking for a friend). I’m voting for every unborn soul the Democrats want to murder (this, too, is a lie). I’m voting for freedom and the American Dream (as long as it is for people who think and look like I do). I’m voting for good and against evil (No, you’re really not & horribly, horribly mistaken in this case). I'm not just voting for one person, I'm voting for the future of my Country! (Trump gave you a voice. You’ve kept so many things bottled up inside of you; poor dear.  But it’s different now - now it can be your boot on the throat of those you think are your enemies. Your taking your country back!  You’ll show ‘em all, won’t you, Sport?)

What are you voting for?!?! (I am voting to cancel yours. That’s a true story, right there).

In God we Trust; One Nation Under God (added to the Pledge of Allegiance in 1954, BTW)

Copy and paste. I did. (Of this, I have no doubt. There is no way you came up with this. It must fit your assumed world view.  Fortunately for you, there are hosts of people out there – the Alt Right, Nazis, KKK members, run of the mill Karens oblivious to their own white privilege, etc. – who will give you all the opinions you should have and, after all, “It has always been easier to have an opinion than it is to think”, hasn't it?  Yes, it has.)

There – Fixed!

It could be fixed better, but it holds water – depending on the intentions of the words

Look, I get it.  It is an election year, that’s one of the reasons it’s so slanted.  The fact is, neither of us - the author(s) of this meme or I, are going to be changing our minds on the topic of Donald Trump.  I can't speak for you, author(s), I can only speak for myself, and I can honestly say that if you identify as a republican or a democrat, that I'm fine with that.  It's the way it is here in these United States.  Third, fourth, or fifth parties are swallowed by the political machine so, effectively, we have a two-party system – republicans and democrats and, leaving the extremists out of the conversation for a moment, we can find common ground.  I can work with either.  But if you identify specifically as a Trump supporter, flags start to go up for me.  Just being honest.  Not that I write you off completely, that’s not the case, but it tells me a lot about what you, your priorities, and the stories you believe.  Perhaps I’m mistaken.  It has happened on occasion, so I am not blindly casting my nets out into the waters and saying, “All Trump supporters are wrong.”  No, I'm not doing that.  But, with God as my witness, you are suspect. 

You have earned it. 

I have my own reasons for this. 

You wouldn’t care about them if I told you.  But, I have my reasons.

You can shout, “God bless, Donald Trump,” all you want, but try to understand, when you do so, I have deep and serious misgivings as to whether you know either party.

But, hey, that’s my confirmation bias.

I have said this before and I can still say firmly, and without a shadow of doubt, it does not matter what side of the aisle you find yourself sitting on politically – we all lost on Election Day 2016.  All of us.  He found a way to unite us at last and right there at the very beginning. 

We all lost.

SPOILERS, this precludes Donald Trump…

 

And now, for Part II…

“All I suggest is a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest…” Simon & Garfunkel, The Boxer


Part II…

Words mean things.  That shouldn’t be a revelation.  The old adage about ‘sticks and stones’ is a lie.  Words can hurt you, and in the wrong hands and they can be deadly.  Language, written language especially, is a funny thing.  Words come together – a noun here, a verb there, and, before you know it, there’s a sentence.  Those sentences become paragraphs.  Those paragraphs become chapters.  Stories are saved and told and repeated and those stories – the ones that are accepted and believed, hold everything together.  Is the story true or is it something else?  Words and their resulting stories can unite, uplift, and inspire.  The opposite is true, as well.  Words can build up or they can destroy.  Therefore, critical readers – critical thinkers, are essential.  As a society, we need to be able to sift words through the filter of the truth.  It has always been important to chose the stories we hold closest to our hearts, wisely.  

Unfortunately, we focus more on the story and, more often then not, lose focus on the words that are used to tell it.  Case in point.  I could tell you that I believe in the 2nd amendment but that I wouldn’t mind mental health background checks before you are able to get one.  You may say to yourself, “Well, that’s not so bad.” Or you could say, “That is an infringement on the right to bear arms”.  Or you could ignore the words altogether and go right for the story, “They’re coming to take your guns!”  In two out of three of these options there is room for discussion – for give and take, room for, dare I say, compromise.  In the other tale, the story that the gun lobby has woven is the only thing you need to know, there is no room for debate or for thought.  There is no rhyme or reason, it’s an opinion gone wild.  Discussion or compromise?  Sorry, there's no room.  That’s how you get people who deny things like Sandy Hook – they believe the story that the NRA has seeded and some twisted souls mutate it to fit their own sick narrative.  Lobbyists tell such great stories and their pockets are full so they can pay off as many politicians they can.  That is corrupt and disgusting but it is the way of American politics.  It will collapse due to internal rot one day, but for now, it’s business as usual in Washington, DC.  This is why there is never discussion about reasonable gun laws.  And there never will be.  People go immediately into DEFCON 2 in defense of this story – the one where they are the lone patriot and the government is coming to disarm them.  It’s really not going to happen, but the true believers don’t hear that.  They can’t.  There are too many defense perimeters to plan for, too many ammo caches to stock up on.  “Molon Labe,” baby!  Compromise and reason do not fit into their narrative.  They don’t fit into the story they believe about themselves, because – after all, it is all about them and compromise is for the weak.  Never mind that here in the United States there have been at least 2,654 mass shootings since Sandy Hook, with at least 2,908 killed and 11,088 wounded**.  When new facts are presented the story must adapt.  At Sandy Hook Elementary School 26 people were slaughtered, 20 children, six adults, and the shooter who took his own life.  That doesn’t fit the overall narrative from the NRA, so the story must evolve – “The only thing that stops a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun.”  The story feeds itself.  There is no room for reason or rhyme, no discussion, no compromise.  Nothing happens.  The story is a fantasy spun by a lobby group that speaks to the internal narrative of some heavily armed civilians who have their guns oiled, magazines full, with one in the chamber.  Who knows, in the next chapter, maybe a few of them will get to shoot some, "bad guys" and all those fantasies can become a reality.  

So, is the government coming for your guns?  No.

Will there be any meaningful discussion about practical gun laws?  No.

Will anything change concerning this issue in the United States?  No. 

There will be no change with gun laws until people start caring about the lives of other people and, let’s face it, if we didn’t do anything after Sandy Hook, we are not going to do anything.  We have listened to the wrong stories for too long.  There is too much money to be made.  Our fantasies that fuel our personal narratives were more important than the lives of those school children, their teachers, and the lives of all who have fallen since that dark day in December, 2014.   

What we believe – our stories, can be dangerous things.  How many people have died because of an ongoing narrative or narratives through the years?  People die for stories every day, let alone in the sweeping epics of the history of mankind.  Even before the discovery of gun powder.  History has devoured their bodies and all we are left with are the survivor’s stories.  As for what we believe – the stories we hold dearest, we latch onto the ones that appeal to our vanities or our hopes, and we take them with us as far as they'll go.  As I said in Part I, opinions are much easier to have then thoughts.  Opinions are preconceived and accepted.  A data-set, so to speak.  The idea is that the individual no longer has to think about any given data-set because it has worked for them in the past and it is presumed that it will work for them in the future.  Right up to the point it doesn’t.  Right up to the point where new data becomes undeniable and it is there that two things will happen – the narrative will evolve or it will be abandoned for a different story altogether.  Perhaps it is a tale that fits best with what the believer once held as gospel truth.  Perhaps not.

I took the first point from the manipulative political meme introduced in part one and examined it a little closer.  I could have kept going down the list of unscrupulous presumptions found in the meme, but to what end?  The meme is pure biased opinion that is the narrative it serves.  It is supposed to not only preach to the choir but also to let the people sitting in the back pew of the church know where the speaker stands.  It's a rallying cry for those who prefer to have opinions rather than thoughts.  The meme deliberately attaches itself to a host of other stories that fit the personal narrative of about 40% of the population of these United States.  We can’t ignore the words and just accept the stories we are being told any longer.  We must challenge ourselves to find the truth behind the stories that we have been told and the ones we choose to believe.  The truth should mean something, the same is true for words, and for people’s lives. 

So, here’s to the truth, Gentle Reader.  Find yourself a good story, one you can believe in - one that is worthy of your faith.  There is an abundance of false prophets and ravenous wolves running around these days, right here and right now in these United States.  Learn to spot them and turn them away.  Stand in the truth and move forward from there.   

Until next time, stay safe, wear a mask, and wash your hands.

Peace.

 

*Source: https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-military-budget-components-challenges-growth-3306320

**Source: https://www.vox.com/a/mass-shootings-america-sandy-hook-gun-violence

 

 

Sunday, April 05, 2020

Confirmation Bias


There is an excellent book review about confirmation bias from the New York Times by Michiko Kakutani concerning Tom Nichols and his book, “The Death of Expertise” (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/21/books/the-death-of-expertise-explores-how-ignorance-became-a-virtue.html)  The review is entitled, “’The Death of Expertise’ How Ignorance Became A Virtue”.  From the review…

“While the internet has allowed more people more access to more information than ever before, it has also given them the illusion of knowledge when in fact they are drowning in data and cherry-picking what they choose to read. Given an inexhaustible buffet of facts, rumors, lies, serious analysis, crackpot speculation and outright propaganda to browse online, it becomes easy for one to succumb to “confirmation bias” — the tendency, as Nichols puts it, “to look for information that only confirms what we believe, to accept facts that only strengthen our preferred explanations, and to dismiss data that challenge what we accept as truth.

Citizens of all political persuasions (not to mention members of the Trump administration) can increasingly live in their own news media bubbles, consuming only views similar to their own. When confronted with hard evidence that they are wrong, many will simply double down on their original assertions. “This is the ‘backfire effect,’” Nichols writes, “in which people redouble their efforts to keep their own internal narrative consistent, no matter how clear the indications that they’re wrong.” As a result, extreme views are amplified online, just as fake news and propaganda easily go viral.

Today, all these factors have combined to create a maelstrom of unreason that’s not just killing respect for expertise, but also undermining institutions, thwarting rational debate and spreading an epidemic of misinformation. These developments, in turn, threaten to weaken the very foundations of our democracy. As Nichols observes near the end of this book: “Laypeople complain about the rule of experts and they demand greater involvement in complicated national questions, but many of them only express their anger and make these demands after abdicating their own important role in the process: namely, to stay informed and politically literate enough to choose representatives who can act on their behalf.

“We have seen the enemy, and he is us.” – Pogo

I ran into such a situation this morning on Facebook.  This is not unique—it is one of the byproducts of social media—this “backfire effect”, as Nichols warned about.  There is a meme of one of the sons of Trump at the header with a picture of Nancy Pelosi that read something along the lines of, “Democrats are organizing a special committee to investigate Trump’s actions in the COVID crisis!”  My Facebook friend exclaimed in her repost, “These people are evil!”  Both she and the meme insinuating that democrats are obviously wrong for investigating the president’s actions during this trying time in American history.  This is, of course, her confirmation bias and the backfire effect is that she has doubled down on an exponential scale.  The facts, however, are hard to argue.  Is Trump responsible for COVID-19?  No, a molecule is.  A dangerous molecule, but a molecule, nonetheless.  Could one make a reasonable argument that he was negligent in his response in mobilizing the fight against COVID-19?  Yes.  Without a doubt (simply do a Google search for the president’s statements on the coronavirus from January through April—they’re all there and very well documented).  Should that be investigated by a committee from the House of Representatives?  Yes, indeed.  This is our system, a system of checks and balances.  If one branch becomes unbalanced, then it is up to the other two to right the ship.  This is basic civics.  If the tables were turned and there was a democratic president in the White House during this crisis, rest assured, the republicans would be forming an investigative committee, too. 

To be honest, I have had to beat down my own confirmation bias to stop myself from responding to her post.  Reason should win the day and, ultimately, in the war on ignorance.  But, if we can learn anything from the times that we find ourselves, that’s not a guarantee.  It is, at best, a 50—50 proposition.  At worse, the odds are not in reason’s favor.  Reason, the facts, and the truth—keeping with the season—are often crucified on the cross of confirmation bias.

My Facebook friend and I are on opposite sides of the isle, so to speak.  By succumbing to confirmation bias, we may just as well be standing on different planets.  Therefore, I said nothing on my friend’s wall.  There is no use in arguing with a mind that’s been made up.  Theirs or mine.  I take my shot—they take theirs and then we head to our neutral corners to have our wounds seen to before the bell rings and it’s time for the next round.  It’s ineffective, inefficient communication.  Before we start throwing around big words only designed to make each other look smaller we need to look for that common ground.  We must put aside that voice that tells us that, I must be right because this is what I believe or blindly trust in what we have been told.  We need to hold our own confirmation bias in check before we address the confirmation bias in others.  This will help us in finding common ground.  I’ll go one step further, I would hope that, once the quarantine is lifted this and similar conversations should be face to face and NOT on social media.  It’s easier to empathize with someone if they are a someone—a real person and not an avatar with an agenda that has their mind already made up.

I hope that on the other side of this we can find common ground.  Things are going to be different, but we have the capacity to work together through those differences—those inevitable changes to the world that are ahead of us. 

“How do we get through that?” 

Together.






Palm Sunday


Palm Sunday

It’s Palm Sunday.  A day commemorated by Christians across the globe that marks Jesus’s entrance into Jerusalem before thing go bad.  This year, most churches will not be occupied, so there is a distinct lack of palm leaves this year in church going houses across the nation. 

When I was a kid, I enjoyed getting palm leaves on the way out of the church service down at the First Baptist Church of Wildwood.  It also meant that Easter was right around the corner.  Easter is a bit of a disappointment for kids.  Don’t get me wrong, candy is nice—but Christmas is better.  Let’s face facts, wax chocolate sucks—especially in bunny or egg forms. 

Easter, coming up next weekend, is—for believers—what it’s all about.  The resurrection.  This is the largest tenant of the Christian faith—the sacrifice for sin, the death, and the resurrection of Jesus Christ.  Christ’s victory over sin, over death, for you and for me, and—if you believe that, then you to will share in that victory, too.  This is what it is.  The biggest tenant of one of the three biggest religions in the world. 

Some of the faithful, instead of calling it Easter, call it Resurrection Day.  Some of the faithful call this Resurrection Week, starting today.  Today, however, is Palm Sunday.  As per a quick look at Wikipedia, “Palm Sunday is a Christian moveable feast that falls on the Sunday before Easter. The feast commemorates Jesus' triumphal entry into Jerusalem, an event mentioned in each of the four canonical Gospels.”  It may be identified as a “moveable feast” but there are no decent feasts that I am aware of surrounding it.  None that I have ever taken part in, mind you.  The best you can hope for are a substandard pastry called, “Hot Crossed Buns”.  No, you’re going to have to wait until next Sunday for the spiral ham with all the trimmings.  THAT’s a feast.  Before the feast, children wake up Easter morning to see what the Easter Bunny has left them in their baskets.  This is one of the more ridiculous aspects of this whole thing.  I suppose someone wanted to exploit a religious remembrance to make a profit.  He was probably a chocolatier. 

I blame you Willy Wonka! 

Of course, I’d be wrong.  As it turns out (as per a little internet sleuthing, https://time.com/3767518/easter-bunny-origins-history/) the Easter Bunny is, probably, a Germanic tradition about an egg bearing hare that leaves eggs in a nest, called an, “Osterhase” or Easter Hare.  Behold the research…

“According to some sources, the Easter bunny first arrived in America in the 1700s with German immigrants who settled in Pennsylvania and transported their tradition of an egg-laying hare called “Osterhase” or “Oschter Haws.” Their children made nests in which this creature could lay its colored eggs. Eventually, the custom spread across the U.S. and the fabled rabbit’s Easter morning deliveries expanded to include chocolate and other types of candy and gifts, while decorated baskets replaced nests. Additionally, children often left out carrots for the bunny in case he got hungry from all his hopping.”

So, there you have it.  The Easter Bunny is a pagan.  Perhaps he is a Christian Pagan?  It could happen—this is, after all, the age of grace and I don’t know what the Osterhase takes on faith.

But I’m getting far ahead of myself.  This is Palm Sunday—Easter’s precursor.  The same people who welcomed Jesus into Jerusalem will be the same people who scream for his blood, come Friday.  And they’ll get it.  Who killed Jesus?  We did.  Humanity.    

We haven’t really changed at all, have we?  We rail against so many things, we set up our barricades, our preconceived notions, our confirmation biases, circle the wagons, come hell or high water to be ‘right’, to be on the side of the argument that justifies our own conclusions.  Blind to the fact that we may be miscarrying the truth, justice, or subverting the basic reality of any given situation for our own gain.

“Give us Barabbas!” We’ll be shouting come Friday.  And we’ll get him.  Thanks to our confirmation bias we are completely oblivious to the fact that we are about to crucify the truth.

Fortunately, there will be ham come next Sunday.

Selah.